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A China–Japan Geopolitical Collision, and Korea’s Strategic Choice

By Dr. Young D. Lee, author of ⟪INNOVATION HEGEMONY⟫ (forthcoming December)

East Asia’s strategic balance is once again in motion. Japan has adopted its most unambiguous postwar position by declaring that “Taiwan’s security is Japan’s security,” a formulation crafted to leave Beijing little room for misinterpretation. China has replied with its familiar repertoire of pressure—economic retaliation and conspicuous military signaling. Layer onto this former President Trump’s deliberate ambiguity on Taiwan, and both Beijing and Tokyo now find themselves competing to secure Washington’s favor. As The New York Times has noted, the strategic triangle among the United States, China and Japan has already shifted away from its previous equilibrium. The region has entered a new inflection point, where long-held assumptions about order and restraint no longer reliably apply.

Interpreting this solely as a bilateral flare-up between China and Japan, however, misses the deeper structural transformation underway. What is emerging is a U.S.–U.K.–Japan techno-industrial-security architecture—a nascent hegemonic framework that fuses technology, production, supply chains and security into a single strategic ecosystem. At its core lies the struggle for industrial sovereignty: the ability of states not merely to participate in global value chains but to set standards, command chokepoints and shape the rules that govern them. Washington’s Technology Prosperity Deal with London last September was not another routine bilateral accord; it was a declaration of a new “golden age of innovation,” in which the United States and the United Kingdom seek to co-design next-generation technological and operational standards. Within this architecture, Japan is no longer a peripheral ally but an embedded co-designer—especially in semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, and security-relevant supply chains. China’s increasingly sharp reactions reflect a deeper structural anxiety: the recognition that the order being built is not merely excluding it, but structurally constraining—and ultimately diminishing—its strategic room to maneuver. To overlook this underlying driver is to misunderstand the direction of the era.

For South Korean firms, this realignment is not a distant geopolitical tableau; it is an immediate strategic constraint. As the center of gravity for technology, standards and supply-chain governance shifts toward the U.S.–U.K.–Japan axis, companies that remain tied to a China-dependent operating model will encounter growing disadvantages—reduced access to critical technologies, heightened exposure to regulatory and sanctions risk, and weaker positioning within premium segments of global value chains. Those that pivot early—aligning core capabilities, standards strategies and ecosystem partnerships with the emerging architecture—will find expanded room for growth. What is needed now is not cosmetic “China-risk diversification” but a structural redesign of corporate strategy: relocating and fortifying critical processes, synchronizing with next-generation standards and reconfiguring strategic industries in ways that preserve Korea’s own industrial sovereignty. This is no longer a defensive exercise; it is an assertion of agency in shaping the future landscape.

For the Korean government, the question is even more consequential. The central challenge is no longer how to maintain a delicate diplomatic balance, but how to integrate national industrial, technological and security strategies into a coherent stance vis-à-vis the new order. If Seoul drifts passively, it will be relegated to a rule-taker position within an ecosystem whose terms are set elsewhere. The alternative is to treat this moment as an opportunity to redesign the national frame itself—to construct a strategic architecture in which industrial capacity, technological capability and security posture reinforce one another. We are entering an era of innovation hegemony, in which military, economic and technological power converge into a single competitive domain. In such an environment, the middle ground—the comfortable space of perpetual hedging—rapidly disappears.

Korea’s choice can now be stated with clarity. It can build a sustaining innovation ecosystem capable of co-shaping the rules, norms and architectures of the next global order—to build, rather than be subordinated. Or it can be absorbed into an ecosystem designed by others. In truth, there is no third option.

— Dr. Young D. Lee
Author of ⟪INNOVATION HEGEMONY⟫ (forthcoming December)

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